Sealed Baseball Super Pack as shown in the app

Fanatics Collect · Baseball

Baseball Super Pack

The app's own published payout odds for this pack, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $150 you paid 17.8% of the time on the Live odds style.

Pack price
$150
Min value
$75
Max pull
$715
Break even
17.8%

Published payout odds

Fanatics Collect publishes odds by value band, not per card — and it recomputes them live, from the cards still left in the pack.

Fanatics publishes one table per pack — no volatility selector. It is recomputed from the cards left in the pool, so it moves as the pack is ripped.

Live odds pack style — payout odds by value band
Pull valueChanceShare
$75 – $11050.6%
$110 – $16031.6%
$225 – $325beats price16.5%
$500 – $715beats price1.3%
Total100%
Chance of at least breaking even
17.8%
Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $150 pack price.
Expected value
$116.34– $169.14
Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
House edge (worst case)
22.4%
From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.

Odds transcribed from Fanatics Collect's in-app “Odds and expected value” screens, captured 2026-09-16. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.

Cards from this pack

We have this pack's odds straight from the app, but we haven't finished cataloguing the individual cards it features yet. Those go up as we capture them — each with its grade, certification number and the value band it falls into.

What Fanatics tells you before you buy

Fanatics is the only app we review that prints its own expected value on the buy screen, and the only one that names cards and prices them. Both figures below are its own — we checked them against each other rather than taking them on trust.

$131.59 Fanatics' stated expected value — 87.7% of the $150 price

Consistent with its own odds table.

A true mean has to land between $116.34 — every pull at the bottom of its band — and $169.14, every pull at the top. Fanatics' figure sits inside that range, 29% of the way up.

$116.34$169.14

Grail

1.3%

$715 stated value

  1. 2018 Stadium Club Never Compromise Shohei Ohtani #NC-SO PSA 10$714

Chase

16.5%

$225 – $266 stated value

  1. 2024 Topps Pristine Green Jackson Chourio ROOKIE AUTO$263
  2. 2018 Topps Archives '81 Future Stars Shohei Ohtani ROOKIE$250

Base

82.3%

$75 – $139 stated value

  1. 2020 Bowman Chrome Refractor Luis Matos PROSPECT AUTO$137
  2. 2024 Topps Chrome Blue Raywave Noelvi Marte ROOKIE$135
  3. 2018 Bowman's Best Of '18 Green Logan Gilbert PROSPECT AUTO$135
  4. 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft Yellow Lava Refractor Kyle Manzardo$135

These 3 tiers partition the pull — they sum to 100.1%. The Grail tier here is a single named card, 2018 Stadium Club Never Compromise Shohei Ohtani #NC-SO PSA 10, at $714 — a named card, its value, and your exact chance of pulling it. Nothing else in the category discloses at that resolution. The cards listed are a sample: each tier hides the rest behind a “Show more”, so this is not the full contents.

Fanatics' own wording on how these odds are set

“Odds are determined by dividing the number of cards available within each price tier by the total number of cards available in the pack. Odds are dynamic, may change as cards are revealed and market prices are updated, and are accurate as of the time the page is loaded or refreshed.”

Captured 2026-09-16. Because the pool depletes as people rip, every number on this page is a timestamp, not a constant.

Captured 2026-09-16. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.