Fanatics Collect · Pokémon
Pokémon Ultra Pack
The app's own published payout odds for this pack, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $500 you paid 11.3% of the time on the Live odds style.
- Pack price
- $500
- Min value
- $250
- Max pull
- $4,688.74
- Break even
- 11.3%
Published payout odds
Fanatics Collect publishes odds by value band, not per card — and it recomputes them live, from the cards still left in the pack.
Fanatics publishes one table per pack — no volatility selector. It is recomputed from the cards left in the pool, so it moves as the pack is ripped.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $250 – $400 | 75% | |
| $400 – $675 | 13.7% | |
| $675 – $1,100beats price | 7.7% | |
| $1,100 – $1,800beats price | 2.1% | |
| $1,800 – $2,900beats price | 0.6% | |
| $2,900 – $4,688.74beats price | 0.9% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 11.3%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $354.28– $574.57
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 29.1%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Odds transcribed from Fanatics Collect's in-app “Odds and expected value” screens, captured 2026-09-15. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
Cards from this pack
We have this pack's odds straight from the app, but we haven't finished cataloguing the individual cards it features yet. Those go up as we capture them — each with its grade, certification number and the value band it falls into.
What Fanatics tells you before you buy
Fanatics is the only app we review that prints its own expected value on the buy screen, and the only one that names cards and prices them. Both figures below are its own — we checked them against each other rather than taking them on trust.
Consistent with its own odds table.
A true mean has to land between $354.28 — every pull at the bottom of its band — and $574.57, every pull at the top. Fanatics' figure sits inside that range, 46% of the way up.
Grail
1.4%$1,950 – $4,688.74 stated value
- 2016 XY Fates Collide Full Art Umbreon EX #119 PSA 10$5,455↑
- 2003 Skyridge Holo Golem #148 PSA 9$3,934
- 2002 Neo Destiny Holo Shining Tyranitar #113 BGS 9$3,908
- 2002 Neo Destiny Holo Shining Mewtwo #109 BGS 9$3,392
Chase
10%$655 – $1,700 stated value
Base
88.6%$250 – $1,300 stated value
These 3 tiers partition the pull — they sum to 100%. The cards listed are a sample: each tier hides the rest behind a “Show more”, so this is not the full contents.
One of these 4 named cards is priced outside its own tier's stated range. The furthest out is 2016 XY Fates Collide Full Art Umbreon EX #119 PSA 10 at $5,455, in a Grail tier Fanatics bounds at $4,688.74 — 16% past it. Fanatics' own disclaimer covers this — values are market data that “may fluctuate”, and the odds are recomputed live — so it is not a contradiction so much as a moving target. Read the tier range as a guide, not a bound.
Fanatics' own wording on how these odds are set
“Odds are determined by dividing the number of cards available within each price tier by the total number of cards available in the pack. Odds are dynamic, may change as cards are revealed and market prices are updated, and are accurate as of the time the page is loaded or refreshed.”
Captured 2026-09-15. Because the pool depletes as people rip, every number on this page is a timestamp, not a constant.
Captured 2026-09-15. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.