CrownCards · Watches
Watch Amethyst Box
The app's own published payout odds for this box, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $500 you paid 50% of the time on the Normal style.
- Box price
- $500
- Min value
- $150
- Max pull
- $10,000
- Break even
- 50%
Published payout odds
CrownCards publishes odds by value band, not per card — and they change with the volatility you pick.
The default distribution. Most weight in the middle bands.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $150 – $200 | 25.8% | |
| $200 – $500 | 24.2% | |
| $500 – $600beats price | 16.1% | |
| $600 – $700beats price | 15.5% | |
| $700 – $900beats price | 15.2% | |
| $900 – $10,000beats price | 3.2% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 50%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $395.80– $834.50
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 20.8%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $900 all the way to $10,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Shifts weight out of the middle bands into Uncommon and Grail — a wider swing both ways.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $150 – $200 | 30.67% | |
| $200 – $500 | 49.45% | |
| $500 – $600beats price | 1.6% | |
| $600 – $700beats price | 2.6% | |
| $700 – $900beats price | 5.59% | |
| $900 – $10,000beats price | 10.09% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 19.9%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $298.45– $1,395.70
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 40.3%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $900 all the way to $10,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Collapses to two outcomes: the floor band or Grail. Every pack offering it is exactly 90/10.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $150 – $200 | 90% | |
| $2,500 – $10,000beats price | 10% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 10%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $385– $1,180
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 23%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Also a two-outcome barbell, with a larger Grail share than Max but a lower Grail floor.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $150 – $200 | 82.38% | |
| $900 – $10,000beats price | 17.62% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 17.6%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $282.15– $1,926.76
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 43.6%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $900 all the way to $10,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Odds transcribed from CrownCards's in-app “Estimated Odds & Values” screens, captured 2026-09-15. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
The 5 items this pack's Top Pulls screen shows
These are not this pack's contents. CrownCards draws this window from the pack's ceiling, not from what it holds . Read it as the shop window, not the inventory.
99.5%of this pack's $10,000 stated ceiling is reached by its top item
20×the $500 price, for the single dearest item shown
5 of 15the screen shows five and offers “View More 10 Items” below them
- 1Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Calendar 1558420 WatchTop Grail$9,952.50
- 2Jaeger Lecoultre Ma…$9,948
- 3Hublot Fusion King…$9,943.50
- 4Breitling Superocea…$4,663.50
- 5Tudor Ranger 79930$4,641
Captured 2026-09-15 from CrownCards' own pack screen. Every item on the screen carries the Grail tag — the rarest of its six bands, which on this pack is a 3.2% chance on the Normal setting. So the gallery shows you the top band and nothing else. 3 of these 5 names are cut off by the app itself; they are recorded exactly as displayed rather than completed by us. Across all 23 Top Pulls screens we captured, the headline item lands between 75.6% and 100% of its pack's stated maximum and never above it.
Captured 2026-09-15. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.