CrownCards · Watches
Watch Emerald Box
The app's own published payout odds for this box, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $2,500 you paid 48.7% of the time on the Normal style.
- Box price
- $2,500
- Min value
- $850
- Max pull
- $100,000
- Break even
- 48.7%
Published payout odds
CrownCards publishes odds by value band, not per card — and they change with the volatility you pick.
The default distribution. Most weight in the middle bands.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $850 – $1,000 | 24.78% | |
| $1,000 – $2,500 | 26.53% | |
| $2,500 – $3,000beats price | 28.46% | |
| $3,000 – $3,750beats price | 12.99% | |
| $3,750 – $4,750beats price | 4.59% | |
| $4,750 – $100,000beats price | 2.64% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 48.7%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $2,500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $1,874.66– $5,110
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 25%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $4,750 all the way to $100,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Odds transcribed from CrownCards's in-app “Estimated Odds & Values” screens, captured 2026-09-15. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
The 5 items this pack's Top Pulls screen shows
These are not this pack's contents. CrownCards draws this window from the pack's ceiling, not from what it holds . Read it as the shop window, not the inventory.
99.2%of this pack's $100,000 stated ceiling is reached by its top item
40×the $2,500 price, for the single dearest item shown
5 of 15the screen shows five and offers “View More 10 Items” below them
- 1Rolex Day-Date 40 Slate Ombre Dial WatchTop Grail$99,225
- 2Rolex Cosmograph…$96,498
- 3Audemars Piguet Ro…$95,718
- 4Rolex Sky-Dweller 4…$57,744
- 5Rolex Yacht-Master I…$56,946
Captured 2026-09-15 from CrownCards' own pack screen. Every item on the screen carries the Grail tag — the rarest of its six bands, which on this pack is a 2.64% chance on the Normal setting. So the gallery shows you the top band and nothing else. 4 of these 5 names are cut off by the app itself; they are recorded exactly as displayed rather than completed by us. Across all 23 Top Pulls screens we captured, the headline item lands between 75.6% and 100% of its pack's stated maximum and never above it.
Captured 2026-09-15. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.