CrownCards · Watches
Watch Silver Box
The app's own published payout odds for this box, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $50 you paid 50% of the time on the Normal style.
- Box price
- $50
- Min value
- $15
- Max pull
- $1,000
- Break even
- 50%
Published payout odds
CrownCards publishes odds by value band, not per card — and they change with the volatility you pick.
The default distribution. Most weight in the middle bands.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $15 – $20 | 19.9% | |
| $20 – $50 | 30.1% | |
| $50 – $55beats price | 16% | |
| $55 – $65beats price | 14% | |
| $65 – $90beats price | 15.8% | |
| $90 – $1,000beats price | 4.19% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 50%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $50 pack price.
- Expected value
- $38.75– $93.05
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 22.5%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $90 all the way to $1,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Shifts weight out of the middle bands into Uncommon and Grail — a wider swing both ways.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $15 – $20 | 19.44% | |
| $20 – $50 | 62.1% | |
| $50 – $55beats price | 1.1% | |
| $55 – $65beats price | 1.7% | |
| $65 – $90beats price | 5.41% | |
| $90 – $1,000beats price | 10.26% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 18.5%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $50 pack price.
- Expected value
- $29.57– $144.12
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 40.9%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $90 all the way to $1,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Collapses to two outcomes: the floor band or Grail. Every pack offering it is exactly 90/10.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $15 – $20 | 90% | |
| $250 – $1,000beats price | 10% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 10%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $50 pack price.
- Expected value
- $38.50– $118
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 23%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Also a two-outcome barbell, with a larger Grail share than Max but a lower Grail floor.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $15 – $20 | 80.43% | |
| $90 – $1,000beats price | 19.57% | |
| Total | 100% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 19.6%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $50 pack price.
- Expected value
- $29.68– $211.79
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 40.6%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $90 all the way to $1,000. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.
Odds transcribed from CrownCards's in-app “Estimated Odds & Values” screens, captured 2026-09-15. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
The 5 items this pack's Top Pulls screen shows
These are not this pack's contents. CrownCards draws this window from the pack's ceiling, not from what it holds . Read it as the shop window, not the inventory.
99.2%of this pack's $1,000 stated ceiling is reached by its top item
20×the $50 price, for the single dearest item shown
5 of 15the screen shows five and offers “View More 10 Items” below them
- 1Tissot PRX T137.807.44.041.00Top Grail$991.50
- 2Seiko 5 Bruce Lee Sr…$988.50
- 3Hamilton Khaki Field…$978
- 4Seiko 5 Field Gmt Ss…$457.50
- 5Seiko 5 Sports Gmt…$457.50
Captured 2026-09-15 from CrownCards' own pack screen. Every item on the screen carries the Grail tag — the rarest of its six bands, which on this pack is a 4.19% chance on the Normal setting. So the gallery shows you the top band and nothing else. 4 of these 5 names are cut off by the app itself; they are recorded exactly as displayed rather than completed by us. Across all 23 Top Pulls screens we captured, the headline item lands between 75.6% and 100% of its pack's stated maximum and never above it.
Captured 2026-09-15. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.