Fanatics Collect · Basketball
Basketball Ultra Pack
The app's own published payout odds for this pack, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $500 you paid 15.8% of the time on the Live odds style.
- Pack price
- $500
- Min value
- $88
- Max pull
- $4,485
- Break even
- 15.8%
Published payout odds
Fanatics Collect publishes odds by value band, not per card — and it recomputes them live, from the cards still left in the pack.
Fanatics publishes one table per pack — no volatility selector. It is recomputed from the cards left in the pool, so it moves as the pack is ripped.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $88 – $170 | 0.9% | |
| $170 – $325 | 50.4% | |
| $325 – $625 | 33% | |
| $625 – $1,200beats price | 12.6% | |
| $1,200 – $2,300beats price | 2.7% | |
| $2,300 – $4,485beats price | 0.5% | |
| Total | 100.1% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 15.8%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $500 pack price.
- Expected value
- $316.37– $607.30
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 36.7%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Odds transcribed from Fanatics Collect's in-app “Odds and expected value” screens, captured 2026-09-16. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
Cards from this pack
We have this pack's odds straight from the app, but we haven't finished cataloguing the individual cards it features yet. Those go up as we capture them — each with its grade, certification number and the value band it falls into.
What Fanatics tells you before you buy
Fanatics is the only app we review that prints its own expected value on the buy screen, and the only one that names cards and prices them. Both figures below are its own — we checked them against each other rather than taking them on trust.
Consistent with its own odds table.
A true mean has to land between $316.37 — every pull at the bottom of its band — and $607.30, every pull at the top. Fanatics' figure sits inside that range, 45% of the way up.
Grail
1.2%$1,509 – $4,485 stated value
- 1998 Fleer Brilliants Shining Stars Pulsar Kobe Bryant #14 PSA 8 NM-MT$4,776↑
- 2025 Topps All Kings Dylan Harper ROOKIE #AK-17 PSA 8$3,999
- 2022 National Treasures Keegan Murray ROOKIE PATCH AUTO$2,366
- 2024 Panini Eminence Gilded Graphs Gold Shai Gilgeous-Alexander$1,900
Chase
10.1%$883 – $1,316 stated value
- 2012 Immaculate Collection Anthony Davis ROOKIE PATCH AUTO #134 PSA 8$1,287
- 2024 Panini Revolution Kaboom! Vertical Matas Buzelis ROOKIE #23$1,261
- 2016 Immaculate Collection Dual Jason Kidd / Giannis Antetokounmpo AUTO #85$1,250
- 2024 Panini One And One Timeless Moments Red James Harden AUTO$1,250
Base
88.7%$88 – $925 stated value
- 2004 Finest Xfractor Blue Chris Paul ROOKIE /25 #194 BGS 9.5$1,007↑
- 2001 Upper Deck Ovation UNC Floor Michael Jordan RELIC$661
- 2024 Panini Prizm Sensational Green Choice Jaylon Tyson$659
- 1989 Kenner Starting Lineup One On One Michael Jordan #5 BGS 8$657
These 3 tiers partition the pull — they sum to 100%. The cards listed are a sample: each tier hides the rest behind a “Show more”, so this is not the full contents.
2 of these 12 named cards are priced outside their own tier's stated range. The furthest out is 2004 Finest Xfractor Blue Chris Paul ROOKIE /25 #194 BGS 9.5 at $1,007, in a Base tier Fanatics bounds at $925 — 9% past it. Fanatics' own disclaimer covers this — values are market data that “may fluctuate”, and the odds are recomputed live — so it is not a contradiction so much as a moving target. Read the tier range as a guide, not a bound.
Fanatics' own wording on how these odds are set
“Odds are determined by dividing the number of cards available within each price tier by the total number of cards available in the pack. Odds are dynamic, may change as cards are revealed and market prices are updated, and are accurate as of the time the page is loaded or refreshed.”
Captured 2026-09-16. Because the pool depletes as people rip, every number on this page is a timestamp, not a constant.
Captured 2026-09-16. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.