Sealed Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) as shown in the app

Courtyard · Pokémon

Pokémon Ultra (Spicy)

The app's own published payout odds for this pack, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $249 you paid 28.9% of the time on the Distribution style.

Pack price
$249
Min value
$125
Max pull
$7,900
Break even
28.9%
Read the Courtyard review All Pokémon packs

Published payout odds

Courtyard publishes odds by value band, not per card — and they change with the pack style you pick.

Courtyard's own published value distribution for this pack.

Distribution pack style — payout odds by value band
Pull valueChanceShare
$125 – $18564%
$185 – $2497%
$249 – $498beats price22%
$498 – $996beats price6%
$996 – $7,900beats price0.9%
Total99.9%
Chance of at least breaking even
28.9%
Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $249 pack price.
Expected value
$186.57– $376.25
Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
House edge (worst case)
25.1%
From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.

Why there's no single EV number: the top band runs from $996 all the way to $7,900. A midpoint across a band that wide would dominate the whole calculation and imply a return above 100%, so we publish the range and lean on the floor instead.

Odds transcribed from Courtyard's in-app “Estimated Payout Odds” screens, captured 2026-09-08. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.

The 36 slabs this pack's screen shows you

These are not this pack's contents. Courtyard shows one vault-wide leaderboard per sport on every pack screen, cut off at that pack's stated maximum pull — we proved it across 24 screens. Read it as the shop window, not the inventory.

10.6×cheapest slab shown, as a multiple of the $249 price

36/36sit in the rarest band, $996–$7,900 at 0.9%

0/36sit in the other 4 bands, which Courtyard's own percentages total 99.0%

  • 1999 P.M. Japanese Promo #17 Hama-chan's Slowking Glossy-Corocoro Comics, graded PSA 10$7,777.40

    1999 P.M. Japanese Promo #17 Hama-chan's Slowking Glossy-Corocoro Comics

    PSA10cert 115109932

  • 2003 Pokemon Skyridge #H20 Moltres Holo, graded PSA 10$7,728

    2003 Pokemon Skyridge #H20 Moltres Holo

    PSA10cert 16226984

  • 1999 P.M. Japanese Gym 2 #94 Sabrina's Gengar Holo, graded PSA 10$7,657.20

    1999 P.M. Japanese Gym 2 #94 Sabrina's Gengar Holo

    PSA10cert 73084456

  • 2005 Pokemon Gold Star #113 Metagross Holo, EX Delta Species, graded PSA 9$7,531

    2005 Pokemon Gold Star #113 Metagross Holo, EX Delta Species

    PSA9cert 53947437

  • 2004 P.M. Japanese Play #013 Mew Holo, 2nd Season Sub. - Promo, graded PSA 10$7,525.10

    2004 P.M. Japanese Play #013 Mew Holo, 2nd Season Sub. - Promo

    PSA10cert 41528292

  • 2000 Pokemon Rocket #83 Dark Raichu Holo, 1st Edition, graded PSA 10$7,414

    2000 Pokemon Rocket #83 Dark Raichu Holo, 1st Edition

    PSA10cert 42887126

  • 1999 Pokemon Game #10 Mewtwo Holo, 1st Edition, graded PSA 9$7,025

    1999 Pokemon Game #10 Mewtwo Holo, 1st Edition

    PSA9cert 14078066

  • CGC10
    $6,780

    2021 Eevee Heroes (Japanese) #071/069 Flareon V

    CGC10

  • 2001 P.M. Japanese Promo #249 Lugia Holo, Game Boy, graded PSA 10$6,540.40

    2001 P.M. Japanese Promo #249 Lugia Holo, Game Boy

    PSA10cert 70536136

  • 2020 P.M. SM Black Star #SM241 Umbreon & Darkrai GX Prm-Tag Team Pwr Cll., graded PSA 10$6,318.30

    2020 P.M. SM Black Star #SM241 Umbreon & Darkrai GX Prm-Tag Team Pwr Cll.

    PSA10cert 151608841

  • 2004 Pokemon EX #105 Charizard EX Holo, Fire Red Leaf Green, graded PSA 9$6,309.40

    2004 Pokemon EX #105 Charizard EX Holo, Fire Red Leaf Green

    PSA9cert 42932143

  • 2005 P.M. JPN. Master Kit #003 Rayquaza EX Holo, Side Deck 1st Ed., graded PSA 10$6,238.80

    2005 P.M. JPN. Master Kit #003 Rayquaza EX Holo, Side Deck 1st Ed.

    PSA10cert 103372426

  • PSA10
    $6,212.60

    1996 P.M. Japanese Fossil #151 Mew Holo

    PSA10cert 27915831

  • 2005 P.M. Japanese #001 Pikachu Holo, Gift Box Mew - Gold Star, graded PSA 8$6,024.80

    2005 P.M. Japanese #001 Pikachu Holo, Gift Box Mew - Gold Star

    PSA8cert 40940053

  • 2012 P.M. Japanese B & W #159 Zekrom EX Full Art, Promo, graded PSA 10$5,977.50

    2012 P.M. Japanese B & W #159 Zekrom EX Full Art, Promo

    PSA10cert 42775119

  • 1998 P.M. Japanese Vending #150 Mewtwo Series 1, graded PSA 10$5,888

    1998 P.M. Japanese Vending #150 Mewtwo Series 1

    PSA10cert 77421762

  • 2008 Pokemon Japanese #092 Charizard Holo, Stormfront-1st Ed, graded PSA 10$5,801

    2008 Pokemon Japanese #092 Charizard Holo, Stormfront-1st Ed

    PSA10cert 86501752

  • 2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis #9 Lugia Holo, 1st Edition, graded PSA 8$5,586.40

    2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis #9 Lugia Holo, 1st Edition

    PSA8cert 75414857

  • PSA10
    $5,389.20

    2025 Pokemon PRE EN #161 Umbreon ex Special Illustration Rare

    PSA10cert 158822020

  • 2001 P.M. Japanese Promo #151 Shining Mew Corocoro Comics - Holo, graded PSA 9$5,348.60

    2001 P.M. Japanese Promo #151 Shining Mew Corocoro Comics - Holo

    PSA9cert 28384208

  • PSA10
    $5,314.30

    1998 P.M. Japanese Basic #150 Mewtwo Holo

    PSA10cert 104549845

  • 2012 Pokemon JPN. B & W #051 Mew EX FA, Dragon Blast-1st Edition, graded PSA 10$5,224.40

    2012 Pokemon JPN. B & W #051 Mew EX FA, Dragon Blast-1st Edition

    PSA10cert 79232293

  • 2019 Pokemon Sun & Moon #170 Latias & Latios GX FA, Team Up, graded PSA 9$4,916

    2019 Pokemon Sun & Moon #170 Latias & Latios GX FA, Team Up

    PSA9cert 60732093

  • PSA1
    $4,107.40

    2006 Pokemon Gold Star #100 Charizard Holo, EX Dragon Frontiers

    PSA1cert 156302286

  • 2014 P.M. Japanese XY #50 Team Japan's Pikachu Promo-Pokemon Nev Moni, graded PSA 10$4,036.70

    2014 P.M. Japanese XY #50 Team Japan's Pikachu Promo-Pokemon Nev Moni

    PSA10cert 157536780

  • 2001 P.M. Japanese VS #013 Bugsy's Scizor Holo, 1st Edition, graded PSA 10$4,026.90

    2001 P.M. Japanese VS #013 Bugsy's Scizor Holo, 1st Edition

    PSA10cert 92289227

  • 1999 Pokemon Fossil #3 Ditto Holo, 1st Edition, graded PSA 10$4,003.90

    1999 Pokemon Fossil #3 Ditto Holo, 1st Edition

    PSA10cert 25410531

  • 2005 EX Deoxys #105/107 Latias Holo, graded CGC 4$3,719

    2005 EX Deoxys #105/107 Latias Holo

    CGC4

  • 2019 Pokemon Sun & Moon #170 Latias & Latios GX FA, Team Up, graded PSA 8$3,678

    2019 Pokemon Sun & Moon #170 Latias & Latios GX FA, Team Up

    PSA8cert 54001977

  • PSA10
    $3,542.60

    1999 Pokemon Fossil #20 Gengar 1st Edition

    PSA10cert 102211827

  • 2010 P.M. Japanese Promo #073 Palkia Holo, Lgdry. P.M. Present Camp, graded PSA 10$3,059.40

    2010 P.M. Japanese Promo #073 Palkia Holo, Lgdry. P.M. Present Camp

    PSA10cert 63249036

  • 2003 Pokemon Aquapolis #104 Psyduck Rev.Foil, graded PSA 7$2,849

    2003 Pokemon Aquapolis #104 Psyduck Rev.Foil

    PSA7cert 133844722

  • 2023 Pokemon SVP EN #085 Pikachu / Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh, graded PSA 10$2,811.60

    2023 Pokemon SVP EN #085 Pikachu / Grey Felt Hat Pokemon X Van Gogh

    PSA10cert CERT-DISPUTED

  • 1998 P.M. Japanese Vending #25 Ooyama's Pikachu Series III, graded PSA 9$2,780.60

    1998 P.M. Japanese Vending #25 Ooyama's Pikachu Series III

    PSA9cert 108308857

  • 2003 Pokemon Aquapolis #H13 Jumpluff Holo, graded PSA 10$2,680

    2003 Pokemon Aquapolis #H13 Jumpluff Holo

    PSA10cert 45343052

  • 2001 P.M. Japanese VS #142 Rocket's Tyranitar Holo-1st Edition, graded PSA 10$2,651

    2001 P.M. Japanese VS #142 Rocket's Tyranitar Holo-1st Edition

    PSA10cert 28846626

30 of these 36 have a slab image captured; the rest show their grade until we photograph them. We read 36 of an observed 50 positions, so the real window extends below the cheapest slab here.

Captured 2026-09-08. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.