Courtyard · Basketball
Basketball Ultra Pack
The app's own published payout odds for this pack, band by band. A pull is worth at least the $250 you paid 21.1% of the time on the Distribution style.
- Pack price
- $250
- Min value
- $176
- Max pull
- $4,000
- Break even
- 21.1%
Published payout odds
Courtyard publishes odds by value band, not per card — and they change with the pack style you pick.
Courtyard's own published value distribution for this pack.
| Pull value | Chance | Share |
|---|---|---|
| $176 – $215 | 60% | |
| $215 – $250 | 19% | |
| $250 – $500beats price | 19% | |
| $500 – $1,000beats price | 2% | |
| $1,000 – $4,000beats price | 0.1% | |
| Total | 100.1% |
- Chance of at least breaking even
- 21.1%
- Odds of landing in a band whose floor is at or above the $250 pack price.
- Expected value
- $204.95– $295.50
- Low assumes every pull lands at its band floor; high assumes the ceiling.
- House edge (worst case)
- 18%
- From the low EV bound — the figure we consider defensible.
Odds transcribed from Courtyard's in-app “Estimated Payout Odds” screens, captured 2026-09-08. The app states odds are “calculated in real time at the time of purchase and subject to change”.
The 35 slabs this pack's screen shows you
These are not this pack's contents. Courtyard shows one vault-wide leaderboard per sport on every pack screen, cut off at that pack's stated maximum pull — we proved it across 24 screens. Read it as the shop window, not the inventory.
10.8×cheapest slab shown, as a multiple of the $250 price
35/35sit in the rarest band, $1,000–$4,000 at 0.1%
0/35sit in the other 4 bands, which Courtyard's own percentages total 100.0%
$3,978.402015 Panini Immaculate Coll. #101 Karl-Anthony Towns Autograph Patch
$3,863.602021 Court Kings #2 Cade Cunningham Blank Slate
$3,7641997 Topps Chrome Refractors #115 Tim Duncan
- PSA10$3,684
2024 Prizm #16 Nikola Jokic Manga
$3,6422020 Panini Prizm #258 Anthony Edwards Orange Prizm
- PSA9$3,599
2016 U.D. Euroleague #23 Luka Doncic Autograph
- BGS9$3,580.80
2018 Panini Noir #111 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
$3,5602022 Contenders #115 Jalen Williams Autograph-Cracked Ice
$3,5271996 Stadium Club #CA1 Jordan / Stackhouse Class Acts-Refractor
$3,5142023 Prizm #150 Amen Thompson Mojo
- BGS9$3,448.30
2018 Certified Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Certified Potential Autos, Mirror Green
- BGS9.5$3,349.50
2003 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection #79 Yao Ming Autograph
$3,318.502024 Prizm WNBA #22 Caitlin Clark Silver Prizm
$3,3002023 Hoops Premium Stock #23 Scoot Henderson Sheesh-Premium Red Prizm
- PSA10$3,291
2023 Prizm #136 Victor Wembanyama Pulsar
$3,182.502003 Topps Chrome #111 LeBron James
$3,151.702024 Donruss Optic #7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Downtown
- BGS9.5$3,113.40
2018 Select #257 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prizms Tie Dye
$3,025.902019 Panini Mosaic #FBJMT Ja Morant Auto Fast Break-Gold
- PSA10$2,997
2023 Obsidian #UMGDI Gradey Dick UM-Vibrant Mojo 1/1
- PSA10$2,996
2022 Prizm #249 Paolo Banchero White Sparkle
- PSA9$2,977.80
2022 Contenders Optic #118 Paolo Banchero Autograph-Gold Wave
- PSA10$2,972.60
2023 Prizm #136 Victor Wembanyama Silver Prizm
$2,9652023 Panini One and One #3 Luka Doncic Downtown-Variation
- PSA9$2,950
2017 Panini Select #166 Jayson Tatum Zebra Prizm
- PSA10$2,928.50
2020 Crown Royale #25 Deni Avdija Kaboom!
- PSA10$2,890.40
2025 Topps Chrome #GC-6 Stephen Curry Glass Canvas
- PSA10$2,861
1996 Topps #138 Kobe Bryant
- PSA7$2,850
1980 Topps Bird / Erving / Johnson Scoring Leader
- PSA9$2,843.90
2025 Topps Chrome #UV-8 Victor Wembanyama Ultra Violet
- PSA10$2,836
2018 Panini Prizm #FRSGA Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Fast Break Rookie Auto.
- PSA10$2,808
2024 Donruss Optic #1 Luka Doncic Downtown
- SGC10$2,740.50
2020 Panini Prizm #256 Tyrese Maxey Bronze Fast Break Prizm 2/20
- PSA10$2,731
2022 Contenders #112 Paolo Banchero Auto-Prem.Ed-Blue Shimmer
- PSA10$2,700
2022 Panini One and One #19 Paolo Banchero Downtown
13 of these 35 have a slab image captured; the rest show their grade until we photograph them. Courtyard's 5 bands sum to 100.1% — its rounding, not ours.
Captured 2026-09-08. Any values shown are the app's own live fair-market-value figures at that moment and drift over time.