Are Courtyard Packs Worth It? Odds on 91 Packs (Oct 2026)
- 81.2%
- of the pack price an average pull returns at instant cash-out (101 of 103 packs, Oct 16, 2026)
- 26.8%
- median chance a pull is worth at least the pack price (91 packs with odds, Oct 16, 2026)
- 0.846
- buy-back ratio on all 103 live Courtyard packs (Oct 16, 2026)
- 84.4%
- median floor return, the lowest possible average if every pull lands at its bucket floor (91 packs, Oct 16, 2026)
Courtyard packs do not pay you back in cash on average, as of Oct 16, 2026. The app states its packs return 96% of their price in card value, on 101 of 103 live packs. Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter state 100%: $25 of published expected value (EV) on a $25 price. At the 0.846 buy-back ratio, an average pull returns 81.2% of the price as instant cash-out. On Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter, instant cash-out returns 84.6%. Your break-even odds, the chance one pull is worth the pack price, run 18.0% to 30.1%. The median is 26.8% across 91 packs with odds.
Pack figures come from Courtyard’s own pack feed, captured Oct 16, 2026 at 11:26 UTC.
Are Courtyard Packs Worth It on Average?
Courtyard packs return less than you pay on average, in both published EV and instant cash-out. The app states 96% published EV on 101 of its 103 live packs (Oct 16, 2026). The Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter packs state 100%: $25 of EV on a $25 price. The 96% and 100% figures are the operator’s stated numbers, not MyCardRips measurements.
Published EV is not cash. Selling every Courtyard pull back averages 81.2% of the price on 101 packs, as of Oct 16, 2026. The feed lists a 0.846 buy-back ratio on all 103 packs.
Courtyard’s own counter logged 930,461 pulls in the 30 days to Oct 16, 2026 at 11:21 UTC. Even at a 96% average, 69.9% to 82.0% of pulls finish below the pack price (n=91, Oct 16, 2026).
Legitimacy, the vault, identity checks and the app itself sit in the full Courtyard review. The same question across every card-rip app sits in are card rips worth it.
Courtyard Pack Odds: What Each Bucket Means
Courtyard pack odds are a table of up to five buckets: base, common, uncommon, rare and chase. Each bucket is a card-value range with a stated probability that your pull lands in it. Four of the 91 packs with odds show no chase bucket (Oct 16, 2026). They are Wildcard Starter, Sealed Pokémon Booster ($25), $250 Ancient Coins and Baseball Diamond.
Pokémon Starter Pack odds ($25), pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Bucket | Value range | Odds | At or above $25? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $17 to $21 | 39.7% | No |
| Common | $21 to $25 | 33% | No |
| Uncommon | $25 to $50 | 23% | Yes |
| Rare | $50 to $100 | 4% | Yes |
| Chase | $100 to $400 | 0.3% | Yes |
On the Pokémon Starter Pack, the three buckets at or above $25 add up to 27.3% (Oct 16, 2026). That sum is the pack’s break-even odds. Full pack page: Pokémon Starter Pack odds and price.
Courtyard publishes odds on 91 of its 103 live packs (Oct 16, 2026). The 12 sold-out packs show empty odds tables, so the feed publishes no odds for them. The app shows each pack’s odds on its pack screen.
Courtyard pack odds also move. One feed capture on Oct 16, 2026 logged 75 odds changes against the capture before it. Among the 66 changes with the same bucket count, the median shift was 1.0 point. The largest was 6.0 points. The card rip odds guide covers how bucket tables work across apps.
Courtyard Expected Value vs the Cash You Walk Away With
MyCardRips’ instant cash-out multiplies Courtyard’s published EV by the 0.846 buy-back ratio. The table applies that formula to six packs from $25 to $5,000 (Oct 16, 2026).
Published EV vs instant cash-out, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Pack | Price | Published EV | Instant cash-out | Cash-out % of price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon Starter Pack | $25 | $25 | $21.15 | 84.6% |
| Football Starter Pack | $25 | $24 | $20.30 | 81.2% |
| Pokémon Pro Pack | $50 | $48 | $40.61 | 81.2% |
| Pokémon Master Pack | $100 | $96 | $81.22 | 81.2% |
| Pokémon Platinum Pack | $500 | $480 | $406.08 | 81.2% |
| Pokémon Mythic Pack | $5,000 | $4,800 | $4,060.80 | 81.2% |
Courtyard gives you four exits for a pull:
- Buy-back: an instant cash offer at 0.846 of Fair Market Value (FMV), per the pack feed (Oct 16, 2026). Courtyard buy-back offers expire after 7 days (help center, Mar 23, 2026).
- Marketplace: peer-to-peer sales at 0% fees for buyer and seller (help center, Aug 6, 2025).
- Redeem: Courtyard processes a request in up to 10 business days (help center, Apr 14, 2026). The card then ships from the Delaware vault, with FedEx shipping charged at cost. Card rip shipping explained compares apps.
- Keep: the card stays in the US vault, insured for free while stored (help center, Apr 14, 2026).
Courtyard’s marketplace charges 0% fees, and its buy-back pays 0.846 of FMV. A marketplace sale nets more than the buy-back only when a buyer pays above 0.846 of FMV. The app publishes no data on what marketplace sellers net against FMV. The terms of service give no guarantee about a buy-back offer’s availability (Dec 23, 2024).
The buy-back rate news post covers the ratio. Every exit route sits in how to sell cards from rips.
Your Chance a Courtyard Pull Beats the Pack Price
A single Courtyard pull lands at or above the pack price 18.0% to 30.1% of the time. The median is 26.8% across 91 packs with published odds (Oct 16, 2026). The other 69.9% to 82.0% of pulls finish below the price.
The lowest break-even odds, 18.0%, belong to the $250 Ancient Coins Pack and the Wildcard Starter Pack. The highest, 30.1%, belong to Basketball Starter, Football Starter and Sports Pro.
Lowest and highest break-even odds, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Rank | Pack | Price | Break-even odds | Floor return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest | $250 Ancient Coins Pack | $250 | 18.0% | 82.3% |
| Lowest | Wildcard Starter Pack | $25 | 18.0% | 84.5% |
| Highest | Basketball Starter Pack | $25 | 30.1% | 86.7% |
| Highest | Football Starter Pack | $25 | 30.1% | 86.5% |
| Highest | Sports Pro Pack | $50 | 30.1% | 85.7% |
Courtyard’s instant cash-out covers the pack price on a lower-bound median of 2.1% of pulls (n=91, Oct 16, 2026). The upper-bound median is 26.8%, the same as the break-even median. The figure is a range because one bucket on each pack straddles the price divided by 0.846.
Courtyard’s published EV is an average across every pull, not the value of a typical pull. On the Pokémon Starter Pack, the base and common buckets take 39.7% and 33% of pulls (Oct 16, 2026). Both buckets sit below the $25 price, so 72.7% of Pokémon Starter pulls land under it. The stated $25 average therefore rests on the other 27.3% of pulls. Those land in buckets running from $25 to $400.
The card rip price study holds 28 Courtyard packs from Sept 25, 2026. That sample is no trend line for today’s 91.
Which Courtyard Pack Tier Is the Best Value?
No Courtyard tier buys a better published EV. Every tier from $10 to $20,000 states 96%, except Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter at 100% (Oct 16, 2026). On break-even odds, Starter leads at a 30.0% median (n=7) and Legend trails at 24.9% (n=8).
Packs by tier, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Tier | Packs | Price range | Published EV % | Median break-even (n) | Median floor return (n) | 30-day pulls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 11 | $10 to $25 | 96%, 100% | 30.0% (7) | 86.5% (7) | 380,744 |
| Basic | 5 | $15 | 96% | 30.0% (1) | 88.0% (1) | 175,815 |
| Pro | 12 | $39 to $50 | 96% | 25.4% (12) | 84.5% (12) | 154,620 |
| Master | 31 | $100 to $275 | 96% | 27.8% (30) | 83.9% (30) | 122,210 |
| Sealed Booster | 3 | $15 to $50 | 96% | 28.0% (2) | 83.5% (2) | 78,300 |
| Platinum | 14 | $499 to $749 | 96% | 26.8% (14) | 84.8% (14) | 12,206 |
| Diamond | 10 | $999 to $1,500 | 96% | 28.4% (10) | 85.5% (10) | 4,420 |
| Legend | 9 | $2,499 to $2,500 | 96% | 24.9% (8) | 84.1% (8) | 1,435 |
| Mythic | 8 | $5,000 to $20,000 | 96% | 25.2% (7) | 84.0% (7) | 711 |
Basic ties Starter at 30.0% on one pack (n=1), because four of its five packs are sold out. Tier names follow Courtyard’s feed labels, so Master covers packs from $100 to $275.
Starter is Courtyard’s most-pulled tier, with 380,744 pulls in the 30 days to Oct 16, 2026. Basic drew 175,815 and Pro drew 154,620 in the same window.
Is the Courtyard Starter Pack Worth It?
Not in cash. The Pokémon Starter Pack states $25 of published EV on a $25 price, Courtyard’s best stated return (Oct 16, 2026). At instant cash-out, a Pokémon Starter pull returns $21.15, or 84.6%. The Wildcard Starter Pack ties it at 100% EV.
Four $25 starter packs, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Pack | Published EV | Instant cash-out | Break-even | Floor return | 30-day pulls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon Starter Pack | $25 (100%) | $21.15 | 27.3% | 86.9% | 225,317 |
| Wildcard Starter Pack | $25 (100%) | $21.15 | 18.0% | 84.5% | 22,563 |
| Sports Starter Pack | $24 (96%) | $20.30 | 30.0% | 71.1% | 24,380 |
| Soccer Starter Pack | $24 (96%) | $20.30 | 30.0% | 91.4% | 7,975 |
Nine of the 11 Courtyard packs at $25 state $24 of published EV (Oct 16, 2026). The app publishes no reason why Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter state $25 instead.
Pokémon Starter drew 225,317 pulls in the 30 days to Oct 16, 2026, the most of any Courtyard pack. Wildcard Starter ties the $250 Ancient Coins Pack for the lowest break-even odds on the app, 18.0%. Sports Starter and Soccer Starter both state $24. They hold the feed’s lowest and highest floor returns, 71.1% and 91.4% (Oct 16, 2026).
Pokémon vs Sports vs Every Other Courtyard Category
Courtyard’s Sports, Hockey, Sneakers and Watches categories tie for the best median break-even odds, 30.0% (Oct 16, 2026). Wildcard carries the lowest, 20.6% (n=8). Pokémon sits at 27.5% (n=12), below the Sports category’s 30.0% (n=8). Pokémon still leads on volume, with 364,112 pulls in the 30 days to Oct 16, 2026.
Courtyard categories ranked 1 to 8 by 30-day pulls, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Category | Packs | Price range | Median break-even (n) | Median floor return (n) | 30-day pulls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon | 12 | $25 to $5,000 | 27.5% (12) | 84.6% (12) | 364,112 |
| Wildcard | 8 | $15 to $2,500 | 20.6% (8) | 83.8% (8) | 150,290 |
| Sealed Booster | 3 | $15 to $50 | 28.0% (2) | 83.5% (2) | 78,300 |
| Sports | 9 | $15 to $5,000 | 30.0% (8) | 85.6% (8) | 74,987 |
| Football | 9 | $15 to $5,000 | 21.6% (8) | 83.7% (8) | 59,415 |
| Baseball | 9 | $15 to $5,000 | 27.6% (8) | 84.2% (8) | 43,381 |
| Basketball | 10 | $15 to $5,000 | 26.4% (9) | 84.4% (9) | 42,096 |
| One Piece | 7 | $25 to $2,500 | 23.2% (5) | 85.2% (5) | 31,865 |
Courtyard categories ranked 9 to 16 by 30-day pulls, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Category | Packs | Price range | Median break-even (n) | Median floor return (n) | 30-day pulls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 4 | $25 to $500 | 26.6% (4) | 85.6% (4) | 20,129 |
| Magic: The Gathering | 3 | $10 to $50 | 26.5% (1) | 81.8% (1) | 20,105 |
| Comics | 6 | $50 to $2,500 | 24.4% (5) | 83.1% (5) | 12,955 |
| Hockey | 5 | $25 to $500 | 30.0% (4) | 85.7% (4) | 10,791 |
| Limited | 4 | $39 to $749 | 27.3% (4) | 77.3% (4) | 10,200 |
| Graded Coins | 6 | $100 to $1,500 | 24.2% (6) | 84.0% (6) | 7,122 |
| Sneakers | 5 | $275 | 30.0% (5) | 85.5% (5) | 4,505 |
| Watches | 3 | $5,000 to $20,000 | 30.0% (2) | 87.7% (2) | 208 |
Sports is Courtyard’s own category label, separate from Football, Baseball, Basketball, Soccer and Hockey.
- Courtyard’s Limited packs carry the lowest median floor return, 77.3% (n=4, Oct 16, 2026).
- Courtyard’s coin, comic, sneaker and watch packs state the same 96% published EV and 0.846 ratio (Oct 16, 2026).
- Pulls from card packs arrive as graded card slabs, each with a grader, cert number and grade on record. Sealed boosters, coins, comics, sneakers and watches are the exceptions.
Category hubs compare these digital packs with other apps: Pokémon card rips and sports card rips.
Worst Case on Average: Courtyard’s Floor Return
A Courtyard pack’s floor return is the lowest possible average return, if every pull lands at its bucket floor. Across 91 packs it runs 71.1% (Sports Starter) to 91.4% (Soccer Starter), median 84.4% (Oct 16, 2026). At instant cash-out, the floor return falls to 60.2% to 77.4% of the price.
A single pull can land below the floor return. One pull’s minimum is its base bucket’s floor, such as $17 on the $25 Pokémon Starter Pack (Oct 16, 2026).
Spicy vs regular Pokémon packs at the same price point, pack feed, Oct 16, 2026
| Pack | Price | Break-even | Floor return | Floor return at instant cash-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) | $249 | 27.7% | 76.9% | 65.0% |
| Pokémon Ultra Pack | $250 | 30.0% | 86.0% | 72.8% |
| Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) | $499 | 26.8% | 76.4% | 64.6% |
| Pokémon Platinum Pack | $500 | 30.0% | 85.2% | 72.1% |
| Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) | $999 | 26.7% | 75.5% | 63.9% |
| Pokémon Diamond Pack | $1,000 | 30.0% | 86.0% | 72.8% |
| Pokémon Legend (Spicy) | $2,499 | 26.4% | 76.9% | 65.1% |
| Pokémon Legend Pack | $2,500 | 21.1% | 83.9% | 71.0% |
Courtyard’s spicy Pokémon packs trade a lower floor return for better rare odds (Oct 16, 2026). Their floor returns run 75.5% to 76.9%, against 83.9% to 86.0% on the regular packs at the matching price. Each spicy pack puts 5% odds on its rare bucket, against 1% or 2% on the regular pack. The Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) pack page shows the full bucket table.
What Real Courtyard Pulls Look Like: A First On-Chain Snapshot
MyCardRips’ first on-chain snapshot cannot yet test whether Courtyard pulls match the published odds. Pulls, sales and buy-backs settle on the Polygon blockchain, where MyCardRips indexes and decodes them.
First on-chain snapshot, Polygon, Oct 16, 2026
| Figure | Value |
|---|---|
| Window | 11:37:16 to 11:55:46 UTC (0.31 hours) |
| Events indexed | 1,405 |
| Pack pulls | 472 (average price paid $44.48) |
| Marketplace sales | 253 |
| Buy-backs | 211 (median $19.29 paid) |
| Pulls attributed to a pack | 86 of 472 (18%) |
The 0.31-hour window, with pack attribution on 18% of pulls, is too thin to compare pulls with odds. The $44.48 average is the price paid for packs, not the value of the cards pulled.
MyCardRips’ decoded transactions from Oct 15 to 16, 2026 confirm two Courtyard mechanics. Marketplace buyers and sellers paid identical USDC amounts, a 0% fee. Buy-backs paid out in USDC, through the marketplace contract to the seller’s wallet.
MyCardRips’ 472-pull snapshot from Oct 16, 2026 neither shows Courtyard is rigged nor rules it out. Testing pulls against odds needs a longer window. MyCardRips publishes the live on-chain pull index.
How Close Is Courtyard’s Value to Real Sales?
Courtyard’s card values landed at 89.4% to 101.9% of sold comps on 4 cards MyCardRips hand-checked (Sept 9, 2026). Comp sources include PriceCharting and Card Ladder.
Courtyard value vs sold comps, 4 cards, Sept 9, 2026
| Card | Courtyard value | Sold comp | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bugsy’s Scizor 1st Ed PSA 10 | $4,026.90 | $3,950 | 101.9% |
| 1954 Topps Hank Aaron PSA 3.5 | $5,522.20 | $5,650 | 97.7% |
| Gardevoir & Sylveon GX PSA 10 | $5,057.60 | $5,259.81 | 96.2% |
| Keyonte George Spectra PSA 10 | $2,123 | $2,375 | 89.4% |
The Keyonte George comp is thin, at 1 sale a year. Against the Hank Aaron card’s 4-sale average of $5,421.55, the Aaron ratio rises to 101.9%. The median error against sold comps was 3.1 points on the 4 hand-checked cards (Sept 9, 2026).
The app sets FMV with a proprietary algorithm (help center, Mar 23, 2026). Its inputs are recent sales of the item, market and category trends, and comparative grade data. The terms of service say FMV is “determined solely by Courtyard”, with the model undisclosed (Dec 23, 2024).
The 0.846 buy-back ratio applies to that FMV, so FMV accuracy carries straight into your instant cash-out. On the 4 sold-comp cards, 0.846 of FMV equals 75.6% to 86.2% of the sold price. The ratio dates from Oct 16, 2026 and the values from Sept 9, 2026. MyCardRips’ Courtyard buy-back guide carries the full buy-back versus market comparison. Full valuation results sit on the valuation accuracy page.
How MyCardRips Calculates Courtyard Pack Value
MyCardRips derives three figures from Courtyard’s published numbers, using the method on how MyCardRips rates apps. None of the three is measured from real pulls.
What Courtyard publishes per pack, Oct 16, 2026
| Field | Published? | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Pack price | Yes | 103 of 103 packs |
| Published EV | Yes | 103 of 103 packs |
| Odds buckets | Yes, except sold-out packs | 91 of 103 packs |
| Buy-back ratio in pack feed | Yes, 0.846 | 103 of 103 packs |
| Pull counts (24h, 7d, 30d) | Yes | 103 of 103 packs |
Break-even odds add up the buckets whose floor sits at or above the pack price. Floor return values every pull at its bucket floor, weighted by the odds. Instant cash-out multiplies the published EV by 0.846. The pack feed was captured Oct 16, 2026 at 11:26 UTC, and pull counts at 11:21 UTC. Card valuations date from Sept 9, 2026. Sources:
- Courtyard pack feed (api.courtyard.io/vending-machines), captured Oct 16, 2026
- Understanding buyback offers, Courtyard help center, Mar 23, 2026
- A guide to the Courtyard Marketplace, Aug 6, 2025
- How to ship your physical collectibles, Apr 14, 2026
- Vault your cards, Apr 14, 2026
- Terms of Service, Dec 23, 2024
Frequently asked questions
Are Courtyard packs worth it?
Not in cash. No Courtyard pack is priced to pay you back on average, as of Oct 16, 2026. The app states 96% published EV on 101 of 103 packs. At instant cash-out, an average pull returns 81.2%. Median break-even odds are 26.8% across 91 packs.
What are the odds a Courtyard pull beats the pack price?
A Courtyard pull lands at or above the pack price 18.0% to 30.1% of the time, by pack. The median is 26.8% across 91 packs with published odds (Oct 16, 2026). The other 69.9% to 82.0% of pulls finish below the price you paid.
How much does Courtyard pay to buy a card back?
Courtyard's buy-back pays 0.846 of the card's Fair Market Value on all 103 live packs (Oct 16, 2026). Each offer expires after 7 days. The terms of service give no guarantee of an offer's availability. On 4 hand-checked cards, 0.846 of FMV equals 75.6% to 86.2% of sold prices.
Is the Courtyard Pokémon Starter Pack worth it?
Not in cash. The Pokémon Starter Pack states $25 of published EV on a $25 price, tied for Courtyard's best. At instant cash-out, a pull returns $21.15. Break-even odds are 27.3% and the floor return is 86.9% (Oct 16, 2026).
Are expensive Courtyard packs better value?
No. Courtyard states 96% published EV at every tier from $10 to $20,000. The exceptions are two $25 packs at 100%: Pokémon Starter and Wildcard Starter. Median break-even odds by tier run from 24.9% (Legend) to 30.0% (Starter, n=7), as of Oct 16, 2026.
Do Courtyard pack odds change?
Yes. One Courtyard feed capture on Oct 16, 2026 logged 75 odds changes against the capture before it. Of those, 66 kept the same bucket count. Their median shift was 1.0 point, and the largest was 6.0 points.
Which Courtyard packs have the lowest floor return?
The Sports Starter Pack has Courtyard's lowest floor return, 71.1% of its $25 price, or 60.2% at instant cash-out. The four spicy Pokémon packs sit at 75.5% to 76.9%. American League (Spicy) also sits at 76.9%. Figures date from Oct 16, 2026.
Can you verify Courtyard pulls on the blockchain?
Yes. Courtyard pulls settle on the Polygon blockchain, so each one leaves a public record. MyCardRips' first snapshot covers 472 pulls from 11:37 to 11:55 UTC on Oct 16, 2026. That window is too short to test pulls against the published odds.
Is Courtyard rigged?
MyCardRips' data neither shows Courtyard is rigged nor rules it out. The first on-chain snapshot covers 472 pulls in 0.31 hours on Oct 16, 2026. Only 86 of those pulls (18%) carry pack attribution, too few to compare with the published odds.